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U.S. Employment Situation
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Last Beige Book of the year sees signs of wage growth ...
Two days ago, the Federal Reserve Board published its last Beige Book of 2014. For those who are unfamiliar with it, the Beige Book is collection of economic and employment points-of-view gathered by the Fed from business executives throughout the country. In layperson's terms, it's sort of a briefing book about the economic, financial and employment situation in each of the Fed's 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts.
It's a lengthy publication (the most recent one was more than 17,000 words), but we pull out and highlight passages relevant to the staffing industry, as well as sectors of major importance to the staffing industry, which reduces it down to about 25 percent of its original size. You may want to review our summation of the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book.
Overall, the economy is starting to see signs of wages rising and skill shortages emerging. For example, this Beige Book tells us:
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And as 2014 draws to a close, I wish everyone good health and success in everything that's important in your life. See you in 2015!
OurTemporary Help Services Interactive Data Book tool will enable to view the local (down to the county level) temporary help services trends as well as benchmark your local staffing operation to discover exactly where you are positioned in the market and if your offices are performing up to the local market.
Then use ourEmployment Tracking Tool that is designed to assist you in identifying and evaluating new sectors and markets. It examines the overall employment trends by industry in the given market to help determine possibly under-serviced industries to target marketing efforts (as well as what industries to avoid). By doing this, it shows what industries are growing and therefore are in expansion mode making them eager for a wide variety of products and services and likely in need of additional staff.
What will 2022 look like for staffing services?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics recently published 10-year employment projections. These projections are based upon a plethora of criteria including how changes in population demographics will affect the demand for specific goods and services, the types of jobs, and levels of education for workers to fill those jobs. Our report highlights some of the changes in the direction that both jobs (occupations) and well as employment changes by industry and sector that may be of special interest to staffing industry executives planning for the near-term future.
You may be surprised to learn that it appears that light industrial will be a growing sector for staffing services encompassing growing portion of staffing services jobs by the year 2022; office and administrative support jobs, although they will remain a significant part of staffing services jobs, will decline slightly as its portion of the overall mix.
Our report on the expected employment projections to the year 2022, which is only eight years away, as they relate to staffing services to assist you in planning for the future. Given the highly analytical nature of our readers and followers, this brief, eight-page report is light on words but heavy on tables and charts. And because we know you are a busy executive, you don't even have to go to the additional step of requesting this gratis and valuable report from us. Just directly download it from here.
Looking for more? Check out our podcasts!
Podcasts of the current employment situation will be available by 4:00 p.m. ET, Thursday, July 3rd. The video podcast, which you can start and stop to study the tables and graphs as well as replay individual sections, includes additional data and information. Watch the video version here or just listen to the audio version here (no special hardware or software required), which also can be downloaded to an iPod or any smartphone.
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November 2014 Employment Report
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent for November 2014 as a result of some relatively small movements in the underlying data. We are not alarmed by this development. For more detail, see the "Household Survey" section at the bottom of this column.
On the other side of the monthly employment picture, the total number of jobs was up 321,000; the gains were fairly broad-based and not just concentrated in Retail (although this sector did quite well) and sectors associated with this time of year. The economy hasn't seen an increase of more than 300,000 jobs in almost three years when it grew by 360,000 in January 2012. Last month, in October 2014, it was up 243,000 and a year ago, in September 2013, total nonfarm jobs grew by 274,000.
Total private-sector jobs grew by 314,000 in November that was much better than October's growth of 236,000 as well as a year ago, in November 2013, when private-sector jobs increased 272,000.
The private Goods-producing sector grew by 48,000 jobs in November compared to growth of 28,000 in October, although it was not as strong as a year ago (November 2013) when it grew by 68,000.
The private Service-providing sector contributed 266,000 more jobs in November, which was a very nice improvement from October's growth of 208,000, September's increase of 213,000 as well as from a year ago, November 2013, when it rose 204,000.
The total number of Government jobs was up by 7,000. The federal government was up 5,000 jobs (of which 4,000 were at the USPS); State government was up by 3,000; and Local government was down 1,000.
Temporary Help Services Roundup
As the Fed observed in its latest Beige Book (see the top box of this report), Temporary Help Services growth was strong as it continued to reach new highs. For a chart of Temporary help's growth from January 1991 to November 2014 and comparing the trend to total employment, click here.
InNovember, Temporary help services was up 22,700 to 2,975,200, which was 0.8 percent sequential growth and year-on-year growth of 8.5 percent. Will it break through the 3,000,000 level before the end of 2014? Well, if not in December, then it likely will reach that milestone in January 2015.
In October, THS was up 19,500 jobs.A year ago, in November 2013, THS was up by 36,600 jobs with sequential growth of 0.1 percent and year-on-year growth of 8.1 percent.
Temporary help service's market share -- that is its portion of all jobs -- continued to increase and reached an all-time high of 2.12 percent in November; in October it was 2.11 percent and was 2.0 percent in November 2013.
(if the chart is unclear, click onit to open in a browser window)
Although the November 5.8 percent unemployment rate was unchanged from October -- it's still at the lowest it has been since July 2008. In November 2013, was 7.0 percent.
That 5.8 percent unemployment rate was the result of a labor force growing by only 119,000 and there were only 4,000 more employed persons while the number of unemployed persons increased 115,000. The number not in the labor force grew by 69,000. In other words, despite the labor force expanding and a relatively small number of people becoming employed, the unemployment rate needle did not move (at least not at the one-tenth percentage level).
The employment-to-population ratiowas unchanged at 59.2 percent in November and up from 58.6 percent a year earlier. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged at 62.8 percent but down from a year ago, in November 2013, when it was 63.0. The number of discouraged workers continued to decline with only 698,000 of them compared to 762,000 a year earlier in November 2013.
NEXT EMPLOYMENT REPORT --FRIDAY, JANUARY 9, 2015
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