

DISCLAIMER:
Below are excerpts from the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book published on
July 27, 2011. It was "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
and based on information collected on or before July 15, 2011. This document
summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the
Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials."
The excepts were chosen for
their relevancy to the recruitment, staffing, employment services, and IT
services sectors. The inclusion or exclusion of any sections or wording, the
inclusion of each District's service areas (note that sections of some states
are divided and end up in more than Fed District), as well as emphasizing
certain sections with special typefaces (e.g. bold-faced) was done solely at the
discretion of brucesteinberg.net. The
full report can be found at the
Federal Reserve Board.

First District -- Boston (CT, MA,
ME, NH, RI & VT)
... Headcounts remain largely unchanged or
up only slightly, except for advertising and consulting firms, which continue to
hire. Outlooks are generally positive, but most contacts express concern about
current and future negative effects of increased uncertainty, attributable in
part to failure to resolve the U.S. debt ceiling dispute promptly and the
associated unclear future course of federal expenditures and taxes.
Manufacturing and Related Services
...
Hiring and investment at contacted firms continues to be limited because of
uncertainty about demand and a desire to keep costs low. Manufacturers investing
domestically say they are mainly spending to upgrade IT and related systems,
although a couple of firms report relatively modest expenditures to slightly
increase plant capacity. Employment at the vast majority of contacted firms is
stagnant. Much of the ongoing hiring is to keep up with worker attrition,
although a few firms are increasing their headcount slightly, with one
company "finally" converting some of its temporary help to permanent employees.
Selected Business Services
... All advertising and consulting respondents have increased employment
recently and plan to continue to do so in the near future, with most planned
increases close to 5 percent. Several contacts note difficulty in finding
qualified employees, which some firms say is constraining their sales growth.
Second District -- New York (CT,
NJ & NY)
The pace of activity in the Second
District's economy slowed somewhat since the last report. Business contacts
across a variety of sectors indicate that activity has flattened out in recent
weeks and that hiring has tapered off.
Other Business Activity
Reports from business contacts point to some leveling off in the labor market.
A major New York City employment agency reports that recruitment activity has
been steady but lackluster since Memorial Day. Hiring in the legal industry
has continued to improve from very depressed levels, with large firms hiring
once again. Financial sector hiring has been spotty. Still, the flow of
applicants for office jobs has declined somewhat. More broadly, contacts in both
the manufacturing sector and other industries report some tapering off in hiring
activity since the last report, though employment levels are still expected to
increase moderately over the second half of 2011.
Third District -- Philadelphia
(DE, PA & NJ)
Since the last Beige Book, Third District
economic activity has continued to grow at a very slow rate. Overall,
manufacturing growth has leveled off at a low rate since the last Beige Book.
... Slight increases in activity were reported by service-sector firms, dampened
somewhat by a hiring slump among customers. ... Manufacturers forecast a modest
rise in shipments and orders during the next six months. ... Service-sector
companies also expect continued slow growth.
Services
Reports from Third District service-sector firms were slightly positive overall,
but firms described various challenges. A recurring theme was a recent slowdown
in hiring, especially from small and medium-sized businesses. One staffing
agency described "almost a stop to new [excludes replacement] hiring orders in
the last three weeks." Other firms cited projects delayed due to ongoing
economic uncertainties, including government-related projects contingent on
budget negotiations. The most positive firms recognized that the "easy
year-over-year comps are over" in this recovery and that continued growth will
be slow. Despite these challenges, most service-sector firms expect growth to be
somewhat better over the next six months.
Prices and Wages
Since the previous Beige Book, the percent of manufacturers reporting increases
in prices paid for inputs dropped from more than one-half to one-third.
...Rising commodity prices continue to pressure retailers, service-sector firms,
and home builders to pass through costs when they can and to lower the
price-point of their offerings. There are a few reports of a little upward
pressure on rents in selected local markets for apartments and some retail
space. Meanwhile, there is little evidence of pressure on wages.
Fourth District -- Cleveland (KY,
OH, PA & WV)
Business activity in the Fourth District
continued to expand at a modest pace, albeit at a slower rate since our last
report. Manufacturers reported a slight rise in production and new orders, while
freight transport volume continued to grow. ...
Rising payrolls were mainly limited to the manufacturing and energy sectors.
Staffing-firm representatives noted moderate growth in the number of new job
openings, with vacancies concentrated in manufacturing and professional business
services. Wage pressures are largely contained.
Fifth District -- Richmond (MD,
NC, SC, VA & WV)
Business activity in the Fifth District was
unchanged or slightly improved in most sectors since our last assessment. In the
service sector, retail activity on balance remained soft during the last month,
while non-retail services firms reported flat or slightly increasing demand. ...
The manufacturing sector slowed over the last month, with several contacts
citing softer demand. Finally, employment agencies specializing in temporary
workers noted modest improvements in demand, with several adding that recent
uncertainty about the direction of sales was causing their clients to postpone
hiring full-time employees.
Services
Service sector activity was flat to slightly stronger in recent weeks. Revenues
strengthened moderately, according to polled contacts, particularly in
telecommunications. A number of builders and construction-related firms in the
D.C. area also reported a pickup in business during the past month. Most
contacts we surveyed at restaurants and hotels said revenues accelerated since
the start of summer. However, advertising agencies indicated that business was
flat, and healthcare services providers reported little change. Non-retail
services providers' prices rose at a slightly quicker pace over the last month,
according to our recent survey.
Labor Markets
Fifth District labor market activity, especially among temporary
employment agencies, improved slightly in recent weeks. Most contacts at temp
agencies characterized demand as at least somewhat better in recent weeks,
although a few agents cited weakness in demand for workers. However, virtually
all agents indicated that demand was still stronger than a year ago. Several
employment agents cited uncertainty about the economy as the primary factor
behind hiring temporary help rather than full-time employees. For example, a
Hagerstown agent said that many of his clients were still very uncertain about
their future orders. As a result, they were using contingent labor more than
they might if they felt that business volume would continue to increase.
Increased demand for temporary workers was reported for a diverse set of skills,
including light manufacturing assemblers, machine operators, forklift operators
and quality inspectors. Respondents to our latest manufacturing survey
indicated that employment demand, while fairly robust in June, was little
changed in July. Retail hiring rose slightly, according to our recent survey,
and hiring was little changed at non-retail services providers. A slight
majority of both retail and non-retail respondents indicated that they were
increasing wages.
Sixth District -- Atlanta (AL, FL,
GA, LA, MS & TN)
Sixth District business contacts described
economic activity as little-changed in June through mid-July. ... Manufacturing
contacts indicated that production and new orders increased but at a slower pace
than experienced earlier in the year. Credit availability for entrepreneurs and
real estate developers remained tight, although loan availability for some
commercial projects increased. Most business contacts indicated that their
hiring plans remained modest.
Manufacturing and Transportation
Manufacturing contacts indicated that production and new orders increased, but
at a slower pace than reported earlier in the year. Producers of healthcare
equipment and electrical components in particular noted stronger orders, and a
producer of freight trucks is significantly increasing output. Many
manufacturers reported increased investment in technology equipment in efforts
to increase efficiency.
Employment and Prices
Most business contacts indicated that their hiring plans remained modest.
Uncertainty regarding future demand and the regulatory environment were the most
commonly cited reasons for the muted hiring outlook. Of those that reported
plans to increase employment, many pointed to having reached maximum
productivity with existing staff. Staffing agency contacts continued to
experience high demand for temporary or contract workers. According to reports,
demand for qualified, higher skilled candidates is robust, especially in the
technology sector. Most contacts said that they did not experience
significant upward wage pressure, and characterized annual increases and bonuses
as modest.
Seventh District -- Chicago (IA,
IL, IN, MI & WI)
Economic activity in the Seventh District
continued to expand slowly in June and early July. Contacts expressed heightened
uncertainty about the economic outlook given recent weaker-than-expected demand
as well as the ongoing fiscal issues in the U.S. and Europe. ...Manufacturing
production continued to expand at a steady pace while construction remained
flat.
Business Spending
Business spending also edged up from the previous reporting period. Inventory
investment decreased, but expenditures for equipment and structures increased.
Several manufacturers reported plans to expand capacity, with a number of
projects set to break ground in the District this fall. Renovation of retail
facilities picked up further. In addition, contacts reported an increase in
spending on research and development. Hiring continued at a slow pace, with
many manufacturers reiterating the difficulty in finding appropriately skilled
workers. On balance, however, labor market conditions weakened, as a number
of private and public sector layoffs were reported and unemployment ticked up in
the District. Furthermore, a large staffing firm reported a decline in
billable hours.
Eighth District -- St. Louis (AR,
KY, IL, IN, MO, MS & TN)
Economic activity in the Eighth District has
continued to increase at a modest pace since our previous report. Manufacturing
activity has continued to increase since the previous report. Activity in the
services sector also has increased.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing activity has continued to increase since our previous report.
Several manufacturers reported plans to open plants and expand operations in the
near future, while a smaller number of contacts reported plans to close plants
or reduce operations. Firms in the wood, organic dye, automobile parts, lime,
and hygiene product manufacturing industries reported plans to expand operations
and hire new workers. Furthermore, a major firm in the automobile
manufacturing industry announced plans to hire a significant number of new
workers. In contrast, firms in the ice cream, air conditioner, and wrapping
paper manufacturing industries announced plans to close plants and lay off
employees.
Activity in the District's services sector has increased since our previous
report. Firms in the business support, human resources administration,
entertainment, hotel, and tire wholesale industries announced plans to expand
operations and hire new workers. In contrast, contacts in the government,
newspaper publishing, restaurant, and education industries reported plans to
decrease operations in the District and lay off employees. General retailers
report that sales have slowed in recent weeks. Auto dealers report inventory
shortages of quality used cars as well as new car models that contain parts
supplied by Japan.
Ninth District -- Minneapolis (MI,
MN, MT, ND, SD & WI)
The Ninth District economy grew modestly,
but activity was disrupted by widespread flooding and a temporary Minnesota
state government shutdown that started on July 1. Increased activity was noted
in consumer spending, residential construction, commercial and residential real
estate, services, manufacturing, energy and mining. Mixed activity was noted in
tourism and agriculture, while commercial construction was steady. Private
sector hiring grew modestly, and wage increases continued to be moderate.
Overall price increases were moderate, although pressure remains on a number of
input prices.
Services
Professional business services firms reported increased activity over the past
three months. Results of a mid-July Minneapolis Fed ad hoc survey of 55
professional services firms indicated that 47 percent of the respondents saw
increased sales, while 29 percent saw decreased sales. Respondents noted that
profits and employment also increased. The respondents expected this trend to
continue over the next three months. However, a few contacts commented that
the Minnesota state government shutdown negatively affected their business.
Employment, Wages, and Prices
While private sector hiring grew modestly, the Minnesota government shutdown
resulted in 22,000 temporary layoffs of state government employees. In
Minnesota, a company recently announced plans to build a data center that is
expected to provide more than 100 jobs, and a steel producer will add 60 jobs
this year. According to a survey by an employment services firm, 20 percent of
respondents in Minneapolis-St. Paul expect to increase staffing levels during
the third quarter, while 3 percent expect to decrease staff. Businesses in
eastern Montana and western North Dakota continued to have difficulty finding
workers due to strong oil drilling activity in the region.
Tenth District -- Kansas City (CO,
NM, MO, NE, OK & WY)
The Tenth District economy expanded at a
moderate pace in the June and early July survey period.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded from weakness in the prior
survey period, while high-tech and transportation activity expanded
further. Factory operators reported that both production and shipments
bounced back following weakness in May. The outlook among manufacturers remained
positive as new orders and backlogs similarly rebounded. Inventories of finished
goods were stable. Factory employment increased in June for the eighth
consecutive month and the average workweek expanded slightly. ... Several
trucking contacts cited continued difficulty attracting qualified over-the-road
drivers. Sales growth was strong at high-tech firms despite some downward
price pressure. High-tech firms remained optimistic about future sales gains and
planned to increase capital spending in coming months.
Wages and Prices
District contacts reported only limited wage pressures but noted additional
upward pressure on input prices. Labor shortages and wage pressures were
reported in the retail sector and for select occupations in the high-tech,
energy, and transportation sectors. In addition, several contacts expected
future non-wage employment costs to rise as a result of increased state
unemployment insurance premiums. Manufacturers reported continued upward
pressure on input costs; slightly fewer manufacturers reported increased
finished product prices. Builders reported higher overall prices for
construction materials, and transportation contacts remained concerned about the
impact of high fuel costs on profit margins.
Eleventh District -- Dallas (LA,
NM & TX)
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a
moderate pace over the past six weeks. ...Reports from manufacturers were mixed
but mostly positive, although some construction-related producers were less
optimistic than they were six weeks ago. Nonfinancial services activity rose,
with strong demand for staffing services. The single-family housing sector
remained weak, but the commercial real estate sector continued to improve.
Financial services respondents said overall loan demand was flat during the
reporting period, and contacts in the agricultural sector noted drought
conditions worsened.
Labor Market
Employment levels held steady at most responding firms, although there were
several reports of hiring. Staffing firms reported continued strong demand
for their services. In addition, there were some mentions of moderate
employment increases from automobile dealers, transportation service firms and
manufacturers of primary and fabricated metals, transportation equipment, lumber
and food. Legal firms noted solid demand for talented attorneys, and added
that start dates for some new hires had been moved up from January 2012 to fall
2011. In contrast, one construction-related manufacturer reported a new
round of layoffs, and one retail firm was considering reducing staff levels next
year. Wage pressures remained minimal, although some contacts noted that they
were giving modest pay raises.
Manufacturing
... Respondents in high-tech manufacturing reported that growth in orders
remained at a moderate pace since the last Beige Book. One respondent with
greater-exposure-than-average to Japanese production said second-quarter sales
were well below pre-earthquake expectations, but that growth in June was strong
enough to finish the quarter slightly above their expectations.
Non-financial Services
Staffing firms reported continued strong demand for their services.
Temp-to-hire activity has been a bright spot, with long assignment lengths and
several conversions to permanent hires. Outlooks are cautiously optimistic, with
most respondents expecting continued strength in demand through year-end.
Accounting firms noted a seasonal slowdown in demand for their services. Legal
firms reported mostly steady demand, with continued growth in transactional
services.
Twelfth District -- San Francisco
(AK, AZ, CA, HI, ID, NV, OR, UT, & WA)
Economic activity in the Twelfth District
grew modestly during the reporting period of June through mid-July. ...District
manufacturing activity strengthened slightly.
Wages and Prices
Upward price pressures were limited during the reporting period. ...
Contacts reported that upward wage pressures were very modest overall, although
some pointed to notable increases in the costs of employee benefits.
Compensation gains in most regions and sectors of the District continued to be
held down by high unemployment and limited hiring activity. However, upward
wage pressures remained pronounced in various sectors for workers with
specialized skills in the application of information technology.
Retail Trade and Services
...Demand for business and consumer services increased on balance. Sales
continued to expand for providers of technology services, in particular for
digital media services used for Internet-capable mobile devices. By
contrast, demand for transportation services remained largely flat, as did
demand for professional services. Suppliers of energy services reported further
growth in deliveries to households and businesses, although the pace of growth
slowed. Providers of health-care services reported that demand for their
services remained weak. Restaurants and other food-service providers saw
demand soften slightly. However, conditions continued to improve in the travel
and tourism industry, with further demand growth reported in both the business
and tourism segments of the market.
Manufacturing
District manufacturing activity strengthened a bit further during the reporting
period of June through mid-July. Production rates remained near capacity for
makers of commercial aircraft and parts. Demand improved modestly for
manufacturers of semiconductors and other technology products, with reports
pointing to high levels of capacity utilization, continued growth in sales, and
inventories that were at or near desired levels given the pace of sales.
Production activity and sales improved somewhat for metal fabricators, with
gains in foreign demand more than offsetting weak domestic demand. Similarly,
capacity utilization rates remained largely stable for petroleum refiners, as
export growth for gasoline and distillate products helped to reduce inventories.
Demand continued to be especially weak for wood product manufacturers, with the
exception of the pulp and paper sector, which has seen sustained increases in
orders.