

DISCLAIMER:
Below are excerpts from the Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book published on
September 7, 2011. It was "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City and based on information collected on or before August 26, 2011. This
document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside
the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve
officials."
The excepts were chosen for
their relevancy to the recruitment, staffing, employment services, and IT
services sectors. The inclusion or exclusion of any sections or wording, the
inclusion of each District's service areas (note that sections of some states
are divided and end up in more than Fed District), as well as emphasizing
certain sections with special typefaces (e.g. bold-faced) was done solely at the
discretion of brucesteinberg.net. The
full report can be found at the
Federal Reserve Board.

First District -- Boston (CT, MA,
ME, NH, RI & VT)
Business contacts in the First District
continue to report mixed results. Some manufacturers cite slowing demand while
others continue to enjoy strong sales, retail activity is mostly flat, tourism
is up, staffing and software and IT services firms note continued growth, and
real estate markets remain sluggish. ...
Manufacturing and Related Services
Manufacturing contacts report relatively mixed business conditions, especially
compared to the widespread favorable reports earlier this year. ...
Semiconductor-related manufacturers in particular note declines in demand,
although they attribute it to standard demand cycles for their products, given
the surge in purchasing they saw in late 2010 and early 2011. ... A number of
firms also note a slowdown in European demand for their products. By contrast,
sales growth at pharmaceutical companies remains steady, and demand at various
industrial supply manufacturers continues to be strong. Contacts at these
industrial products firms note that they have little lead time between orders
and sales and thus they would know very quickly if demand were slowing. Despite
continued favorable conditions at some companies, nearly all manufacturing
contacts voice concern regarding the current state of economic uncertainty and
more than one commented that the country is "talking itself into a recession."
Some respondents continue to postpone hiring and/or investment to keep
costs low while others report having contingency plans in place should demand
turn down noticeably.
Employment remains steady at the vast majority of contacted manufacturers. One
exception is an industrial products manufacturer with headcount up 9 percent
year-to-date who plans to continue to hire as long as demand for their
products remains strong. By contrast, a semiconductor firm has eliminated
some of its temporary workforce because demand for its products is off. A
small number of manufacturers report continued difficulty finding workers for
highly skilled positions.
Software and Information Technology Services
New England software and information technology contacts report that the upward
trends of 2010 and early 2011 continued through the end of the second quarter.
Year-over-year revenue increases, ranging from 4 percent to 30 percent, were
driven by notable increases in both software license sales and recurring service
revenues. Reports on activity since July are mixed, however, with some contacts
experiencing downticks and others posting larger-than-expected increases.
Headcounts continue to rise in line with revenue growth, although many contacts
report increasing difficulty in finding qualified software engineers,
programmers, and sales personnel. As a result, some have bolstered their
recruitment efforts and one contact has added jobs overseas. Wages are
steady or up slightly, with annual merit increases generally in the 3 percent to
5 percent range. Selling prices have been left unchanged as a result of a
competitive market environment. The outlook among New England software and IT
services respondents is not appreciably different from that of 3 months ago,
with most expecting growth in late 2011 and early 2012 to be in the 10 percent
to 20 percent range.
Staffing Services
Nearly all New England staffing contacts report upticks in business volume
through the end of second quarter and into the third; however, many respondents
lament that overall activity remains below expectations. Revenues are flat to
increasing year-over-year, with increases in the range of 5 percent to 25
percent. Labor demand continues to strengthen, albeit modestly, with notable
improvements in the manufacturing and information technology sectors. Demand for
permanent and temporary-to-permanent hiring continues to grow; indeed, two
contacts report that permanent placements are up more than 20 percent relative
to last year. Notwithstanding stronger demand, jobs remain difficult to fill as
clients remain fastidious in their candidate expectations. One contact notes
that jobs that used to take just a few days to fill continue to take weeks.
Supply of high-end labor remains tight in the region, but there has been no
significant change since May. Bill rates and pay rates are steady. Looking
forward, New England staffing contacts are generally less upbeat than they were
three and six months ago, with many expecting to "move sideways" into 2012.
Second District -- New York (CT,
NJ & NY)
Economic growth in the Second District has
remained sluggish since the last report. ...
Other Business Activity
Reports from business contacts point to some weakening in general business
activity and steady to weakening conditions in the labor market. A major New
York City employment agency reports that hiring activity has been unusually slow
in August but remains cautiously optimistic that recruitment will pick up after
Labor Day; financial firms, in particular, have become more hesitant and even
hiring for compliance jobs has slowed. Separately, a contact in the
securities industry reports that widespread layoffs are planned across the
industry (though not entirely in New York City) and not all the weakness is
related to the current market turmoil. There continues to be some hiring in
compliance and technology, but layoffs now exceed hiring, on net.
Third District -- Philadelphia
(DE, PA & NJ)
Since the last Beige Book, business activity
in the Third District has been more mixed and somewhat weaker overall. Several
sectors have continued to report slow, steady growth, and a few sectors have
grown faster, while others have shifted to reporting slower growth, no growth,
or declines. Manufacturing activity has declined since the last Beige Book. ...
Services
Reports from Third District service-sector firms remain generally positive, but
with greater expressions of uncertainty. A logistics firm described business as
surprisingly strong--improving since the last Beige Book and better than last
year. Staffing firms noted an increase in temporary hiring to fill permanent
positions--indicating increased uncertainty among their customers. In
addition to the impact from anticipated troop reductions, defense-related firms
noted concerns stemming from the debt-ceiling agreement. While growth remains
generally steady, greater uncertainty has crept into the generally positive
outlook of service-sector firms.
Prices and Wages
... Since the last Beige Book, commodity price pressures have lessened
somewhat on retailers, service-sector firms, and builders; however, margins
remain very tight. But for a few business sectors or a few scattered rental
markets, there are scant reports of upward pressure on rents and wages.
Fourth District -- Cleveland (KY,
OH, PA & WV)
The economy in the Fourth District grew at a
slow pace during the past six weeks, with many of our contacts downgrading their
near-term outlooks. Manufacturers reported stable production but a decline in
new orders and backlogs. ...
... Staffing-firm representatives noted
moderate growth in the number of new job openings, with vacancies concentrated
in technical occupations and healthcare. Almost all openings were for
experienced workers.
Manufacturing
Production at District factories was stable during the past six weeks, although
reports indicated declines in new orders and backlogs. Many of our contacts
expect additional slowing in demand, which they attributed to uncertainty and
caution on the part of their customers. ... Hiring continued at a modest
pace, with some manufacturers reporting difficulty in finding high-skilled
workers. Wage pressures are contained.
Fifth District -- Richmond (MD,
NC, SC, VA & WV)
Economic activity in the Fifth District
slowed since our last report. Manufacturing activity pulled back markedly in
August, following a sluggish July, and retail sales weakened. ...
Labor markets were mixed; while temp services reported some
improvement, employment remained nearly flat at manufacturing establishments.
Services
Non-retail services firms saw an uptick in revenues in recent weeks, according
to most contacts. Stronger consumer demand for services was reported in
telecommunications and healthcare, and a food distributor in the Baltimore area
noted increased demand from locally owned restaurants and delicatessens. A
financial data services firm reported improving demand from restaurants and
retailers in Maryland and Virginia, although other business services providers
noted negative ripple effects from a slower economy.
Labor Markets
Reports on Fifth District labor market activity were mixed in August.
Several employment agencies reported somewhat stronger demand for temporary help
in recent weeks, particularly in the healthcare and automotive industries. The
branch manager of a temp agency in North Carolina stated that manufacturers had
openings for skilled positions, but they had difficulty finding machine
operators with at least one year of experience. Likewise, a contact from South
Carolina reported that three large manufacturers in the area were trying to
hire, but could not find qualified candidates. In contrast, an executive
from the D.C. area said that a major corporation had initiated a hiring and
advertising freeze. Also, a banker indicated that some of his clients said that
they would rather pay workers overtime than hire new workers, due in large part
to the recent environment of heightened uncertainty. According to our latest
survey, job losses in the service sector were somewhat more widespread than in
our last report; wages in the retail sector weakened on average, while average
wage growth slowed at services firms. Survey respondents from most
manufacturing industries indicated that hiring inched up over the last month,
while the average workweek declined and wage growth slowed.
Sixth District -- Atlanta (AL, FL,
GA, LA, MS & TN)
Sixth District business contacts indicated
that economic activity continued to expand at a very subdued pace in July and
August. ... Manufacturing contacts indicated that the level of production and
new orders increased, but at a slower pace than experienced earlier in the year.
... Most businesses continued to be cautious regarding adding permanent
staff, with several indicating that they had chosen to hire temporary or
contract workers to fill immediate labor needs. Contacts reported that on
average, sales prices were up slightly from a year ago, although some retailers
mentioned that weak sales were prompting them to lower prices. Energy contacts
indicated plans to increase oil production capacity.
Manufacturing and Transportation
Manufacturers indicated that the level of new orders and production increased in
mid-July and August, but at a slower pace than earlier this year. A leading auto
dealer and many parts suppliers felt that the impact of supply disruptions from
Japan had ended. A large tire manufacturer noted particular pressure in meeting
a recent surge in orders as the supply chain normalized from the disaster in
Japan. Many manufacturers reported increased investment in technology
equipment in efforts to increase efficiency. [note: this last sentence is
identical to one included in the July Beige Book for this District. It could, or
may not, be an editing error by the Sixth District. -- ed.]
Employment and Prices
Most businesses reported muted hiring activity. Many held the view that sales
are the key factor in determining labor demand, and uncertainty about future
sales seems to be exacerbating firms' unwillingness to commit to full-time
employees. Hence, companies continued to hire temporary workers and contractors
and are delaying longer-term projects. Many noted focusing on efficiency and
productivity increases with existing staff to meet current or any seasonal
increase in demand. Wage increases were reportedly subdued, with many business
contacts opting for cash bonuses and restoration of benefits over annual salary
increases.
Seventh District -- Chicago (IA,
IL, IN, MI & WI)
Economic activity in the Seventh District
expanded more slowly in July and August. Contacts expressed concern about the
economic outlook, noting lower business and consumer confidence. Both consumer
and business spending were little changed over the reporting period.
Manufacturing production expanded at a slower pace, while construction
decreased. ...
Business Spending
Business spending continued at a slow, but steady, pace in July and August. Some
manufacturers reported proceeding as planned with capital expenditures and labor
force additions to alleviate pressures on capacity. In contrast, contacts
mentioned that lower expectations for farm income had slowed purchases of farm
equipment. Several contacts also noted closely watching inventory and
staffing levels in the event that increases in uncertainty in the economic
outlook and financial market volatility took a toll on demand. A retail
contact indicated that holiday inventories will likely be higher this year
because retailers had been very optimistic at the time the orders were made.
Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring still slow and unemployment edging
up in the District. In addition, a large staffing firm reported a decline in
billable hours for staffing and professional services as well as fewer permanent
placements.
Eighth District -- St. Louis (AR,
KY, IL, IN, MO, MS & TN)
The economy of the Eighth District has
continued to grow at a modest pace since the previous report. Manufacturing
activity has continued its increase since the previous report, and activity in
the services sector also has increased. ...
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing activity has continued to increase since our previous report.
Several manufacturers reported plans to open plants and expand operations in
the near future, while a smaller number of contacts reported plans to close
plants or reduce operations. Firms in the heating, ventilation, and air
conditioning; art goods; packaging; bioscience; power hand tools; and sanitary
paper products manufacturing industries reported plans to expand operations and
hire new workers. In contrast, firms in the appliance and burial casket
manufacturing industries announced plans to close plants and lay off employees.
Activity in the District's services sector has continued to increase since our
previous report. Firms in scientific research, business support, health care,
aviation, and automotive repair and maintenance services announced plans to
expand operations and hire new workers. In contrast, a contact in the
parking garage services industry reported plans to decrease operations in the
District and lay off employees.
Ninth District -- Minneapolis (MI,
MN, MT, ND, SD & WI)
The Ninth District economy has grown
slightly since the last report. Increased activity was noted in consumer
spending, tourism, residential and commercial construction, residential real
estate, manufacturing, energy and mining. ... Activity in commercial real estate
and professional services was flat overall. Reports from labor markets
include a mix of layoffs and new hiring, while wage increases remain moderate.
Services
On balance, professional business services firms reported flat activity over the
past three months. A third of services firms that responded to the ad hoc survey
saw increased sales, while a third saw decreased sales. Respondents noted that
profits were also flat, but they expect increased activity over the next three
months. An information technology company noted that July sales were down due
to reduced demand from the government and financial services areas.
Employment, Wages, and Prices
Reports from labor markets include a mix of layoffs and new hiring.
During a 20-day Minnesota government shutdown in July, 22,000 government
employees were out of work. By delaying state funding and inspections, the
shutdown also idled many construction projects across Minnesota. A bank recently
announced plans to cut nearly 150 employees at its brokerage unit in
Minneapolis. However, during July, Minnesota gained 8,200 private sector jobs.
Minnesota auto dealers have started to hire more sales staff. About 11,000
new jobs related to oil drilling are expected in North Dakota, according to an
announcement by a firm with operations there. According to the ad hoc survey, 19
percent of respondents expect to increase employment over the next three months,
while 10 percent expect to decrease employment. A new fabrication plant in
Montana will lead to 100 more jobs, and a sporting goods manufacturer in
Minnesota announced plans to add 100 jobs over the next two years.
Tenth District -- Kansas City (CO,
NM, MO, NE, OK & WY)
The Tenth District economy expanded modestly
in late July and early August. ... Led by durable goods production, District
manufacturing activity grew slightly, with expectations for stronger activity
over the coming months. Despite solid multi-family building activity,
residential and commercial construction remained weak. ... Wage pressures
were confined to high-skilled positions, despite District unemployment rates
well below national levels.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity
Manufacturing and high-tech service activity expanded slightly during the
survey period, while transportation activity edged down. Manufacturing activity
expanded at durable goods factories, particularly those producing machinery and
electronic products, offsetting weakness at non-durable goods plants. ...
With increased activity, durable goods manufacturers hired additional workers,
while non-durable goods factories reduced worker hours. After softening
earlier in the summer, capital spending was expected to strengthen in coming
months. The high-tech industry reported a modest increase in sales, but
contacts were concerned that economic uncertainty could dampen demand. ...
Wages and Prices
Inflationary pressures softened during the last survey period as wage
pressures remained low and fewer businesses expected to raise prices over the
coming months. Most industries did not plan to raise wages, except for a few
skilled positions, such as engineers, software developers, mechanics, and truck
drivers. ... Builders and construction supply companies noted prices for
construction materials generally held steady, with the exception of higher
prices for petroleum-based products such as roofing shingles and asphalt.
Transportation companies continued to pay high fuel prices, and some were
considering raising rates.
Eleventh District -- Dallas (LA,
NM & TX)
The Eleventh District economy grew at a
modest pace since the last report. Reports from manufacturers were mixed, and
activity in the services sector rose slightly. The single-family housing sector
remained weak, but activity in the multifamily sector was strong and the
commercial real estate sector saw continued improvement. Financial services
respondents said overall loan demand was flat during the reporting period. The
energy industry continued to expand at a robust pace, while agricultural
conditions deteriorated further in the District. Employment levels were
stable at most responding firms and price pressures were unchanged.
Manufacturing
... Respondents in high-tech manufacturing report that growth in sales and
orders weakened since the last report. Demand for basic memory products such
as DRAM has weakened, while continued growth in demand for servers to store
and process data has kept orders for microprocessors growing at a solid pace.
Slow growth in Asia and increased uncertainty about the European and US
economic outlooks has reduced business investment in high-tech products. The
outlook for the next three to six months is for weak but positive growth.
Paper manufacturers reported that demand growth softened slightly during the
reporting period, but remained better than last year's levels. Manufacturers of
transportation equipment reported strong sales with demand flat to up since the
last report and well above year-ago levels. Outlooks are optimistic, with
contacts expecting demand to hold steady at current high levels over the next
few months. Food producers reported a seasonal uptick in demand, but noted that
they had seen a significant decline in overall sales compared with earlier in
the year.
Petrochemical producers reported that after about six months of extensive plant
outages, shortages of key materials, and dramatic price increases, resin and
plastics markets have settled. Contacts said demand for most products remained
good since the last report, with the exception of PVC products due to weak
construction markets. Refiners said capacity utilization rates were the highest
since 2007, and margins were strong based on good demand. Orders for oil
products slipped in July, but strengthened again in August, according to
contacts.
Services
Overall demand for staffing services held steady at high levels, although
several firms noted slight declines in activity. One contact reported that
temporary placements were being outpaced by direct hiring activity. Outlooks
were more cautious than the previous reporting period, with contacts expecting
demand to remain flat or decline through year-end. Demand for accounting
services was flat, although contacts noted some strength in mergers and
acquisitions activity. Legal firms reported continued solid demand for
intellectual property, energy, IPO, and mergers and acquisitions services.
Twelfth District -- San Francisco
(AK, AZ, CA, HI, ID, NV, OR, UT, & WA)
Economic activity in the Twelfth District
continued to expand modestly during the reporting period of mid-July through the
end of August. Upward price pressures were mixed but appeared to ease overall,
and upward pressures on wages were subdued. ...
Wages and Prices
Upward price pressures were very limited on net during the reporting period.
...
Upward wage pressures were largely nonexistent, as compensation gains were held
down by high levels of unemployment and limited demand for new hires. As
a result of uncertain product demand, businesses in most sectors expect to
remain highly cautious in regard to hiring for the foreseeable future,
suggesting that compensation pressures are likely to remain subdued. However,
contacts continued to report significant upward wage pressures for workers
with advanced skills in technology fields.
Retail Trade and Services
... Sales expanded further for providers of technology services, as consumer
demand for software, e-books, and mobile applications continued to grow.
Providers of professional services such as law and accounting reported that
demand was little changed from the prior period. Similarly, demand for
transportation services was characterized as largely flat. For energy utilities,
demand waned a bit during the beginning of the reporting period but improved
later. Providers of health-care services reported that demand strengthened
somewhat. ...
Manufacturing
District manufacturing activity was mixed but appeared to grow slightly during
the reporting period of mid-July through the end of August. Although
manufacturers of semiconductors and other technology products reported slower
growth for new orders and sales, capacity utilization rates remained high
and inventories were near desired levels given the pace of sales. For makers of
commercial aircraft, significant increases in new orders for narrow-body
aircraft combined with an existing order backlog to keep production rates near
capacity. A metal fabricator noted that sales were "steady but slow" and raw
materials were readily available. Petroleum refiners reported slightly weaker
demand and capacity utilization rates that were largely stable, causing product
inventories to rise somewhat. Demand held at very low levels for manufacturers
of wood products.